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How many Muslims live in Germany? ,
The study (WP 71) presents an extrapolation of the number of Muslims. The result is that between 4.4 and 4.7 million Muslim men and women were living in Germany on 31 December 2015. Accordingly, out of a total of 82.2 million inhabitants, between 5.4 and 5.7 percent belong to the Muslim faith. The extrapolation was carried out by the Research Centre of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees on behalf of the German Islam Conference.
Roughly one Muslim in four immigrated to Germany only recently
The extrapolation shows that some 1.2 million Muslim men and women have come to Germany between the time when the census was taken in May 2011 and the end of 2015. Roughly one Muslim in four has therefore only been living in Germany for a relatively short time. This must be considered in the context of the immigration of displaced persons in 2014 and 2015, many of whom came from predominantly Muslim countries of origin. The share of newly-immigrated Muslims among all Muslims is 27.3 percent.
Muslim life in Germany has become more varied
At the same time, the results have made it clear that Muslim life in Germany has become more varied because of the immigration which has taken place in recent years. Most new Muslim immigrants have come from regions of origin which previously were relatively little represented in Germany, such as the Near East and South/Southeast Asia. By contrast, the number of Muslims with Turkish roots, who for many years were the largest group of origin among the Muslim faithful, has remained largely stable in absolute figures. This has led the proportion of Muslims with Turkish roots to fall from 68 percent in 2008 to 51 percent in December 2015. Muslims from the Near East have developed to become the second-largest origin group, accounting for 17 percent.
Extrapolation: No comparison with 2008 possible
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The extrapolation was carried out in two stages. Firstly, the number of Muslims with a migration background from relevant predominantly Muslim countries of origin on the cut-off date of 9 May 2011 was calculated. The data sources are constituted by the census, as well as the data from the study entitled “Muslim Life in Germany (MLD)”, which were collected in 2008. The number of foreign Muslims who immigrated between May 2011 and the end of 2015 was then calculated on the basis of the data from the Central Register of Foreigners (AZR) and the Business Statistics on Asylum (Asyl-GEST). The total number is the sum of both calculations.
According to an earlier extrapolation carried out by the BAMF's Research Centre, the Muslim population group accounted for between 3.8 and 4.5 million persons on 30 June 2008. The arithmetic difference between the two extrapolations is hence roughly 500,000 persons. Because of the high level of immigration by displaced persons from predominantly Muslim countries of origin, a more pronounced increase would have been expected in intuitive terms. The moderate deviation is caused by the fact that the total population of Germany was overestimated prior to the 2011 census. In particular, the number of foreign nationals was notably revised downwards in May 2011. The number of Muslims calculated in 2008 was therefore based on exaggerated figures, so that it is not possible to compare the two extrapolations.
The study is only available in German.
The study was drawn up by: Dr. Anja Stichs