Potential of future migration , Date: 2015.10.06, format: project (finished), area: Authority

Research project to obtain qualitative assumptions on future migration flows

The project has analysed a variety of topical areas in order to make qualitative statements on future migration movements. To this end, both the demographic developments and political and economic as well as societal and ecological changes in the regions of origin of potential immigrants were investigated. In order to be able to define the interaction between various factors, knowledge obtained from migration and demographic statistics has been linked with statements from sociologists and political scientists.

Africa and the CIS form the initial focus of the study

As suggested by the "Global Approach to Migration", which was adopted by the European Council in 2005, the geographical focus of the study concentrated initially on the Eastern and South Eastern neighbouring regions of the European Union (EU) as well as on Africa and the Mediterranean Region. The observation of the Eastern and South Eastern neighbouring regions of the EU should be seen amongst other matters against the background of the most recent waves of EU enlargement by means of which the EU’s outer border has been moved.

When analysing various EU border regions as to their migration potential, the focus was placed on Africa and on the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Africa is not one of the major regions of origin of migrants in Germany, but its significance for the overall EU context is increasing. Because of its sustained population growth, unemployment, political instability, military conflicts and ecological problems, North Africa plays a major role as both a region of origin and a transit region for migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa.

EU enlargement has brought the states in (South)Eastern Europe closer to the Union. Because of their geo-strategic location and their societal transformation, the CIS states play a prominent role as emigration, immigration and transit countries.

Asia was focused in the two following surveys

As part of the in 2011 resolved enhancements of the "Global Approach to Migration and Mobility in the EU" the geographical area of interest for a coherent external migration policy in accordance with the objectives of the foreign policy and development cooperation of the EU was explicitly extended to cover the mobility of third country nationals.